CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2015-11-04T14:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9643/-1
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T22:25Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:
SPM2 Input Parameters: Date-time: 2015-11-04T14:24 Source Longtitude: 10 Source Latitude: 6 Initial Shock Speed: 785 km/s Background Solar Wind Speed: 450 km/s Duration Time: 1.0 hour (default) Output results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2015-11-06 22:25:26 The transit time predicted is 56.02 hours!Lead Time: 19.47 hour(s)
Difference: -4.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2015-11-05T22:06Z
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